(LONGEUIL, QUEBEC) A pilot project that aims to photograph Canada’s Northern Lights simultaneously from Earth and space begins today! Check out this exciting new AuroraMAX announcement on the Canadian Space Agency website!

January 15, 2012 • Sunspot 1402 Visible From Earth • Massive Sunspot 1402 is visible from Earth as it emerges over the eastern limb of the Sun. Over the next few days it will rotate across the Earthward side of the Sun. Along with 1402, nearby Sunspot 1401 (just south of 1402) is also visible and both are considered to be a risk for Earth if either produces a solar flare in the days ahead. As these sunspots rotated towards the centre of the solar disk they became increasingly active.

January 22, 2012 • M-Class Solar Flare Eruption • A significant M9-Class solar flare erupts from Sunspot 1402 at approximately 4 a.m. Universal Time (UT) on January 23, which is 9 p.m. Mountain Standard Time on January 22. The space weather gurus at the NOAA and elsewhere begin crunching data to determine how and when this event will affect the magnetic field that surrounds (and protects) Earth. Solar flares are categorized as B-Class, C-Class, M-Class, or X-Class, with X flares being the most intense. Flares in the B and C Class are small, and the consequences of these events are barely noticeable on Earth. Each class of flare has 9 subdivisions, so as an M9 event, this flare was only slightly less powerful than an X-Class flare and attracted much more attention than the M3.2 flare that exploded from the same sunspot on January 19.

January 22, 2012 • Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejection • Experts quickly determine that indeed this solar event had released a fast-moving Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the general direction of Earth. Not all flares do this, it depends on the nature of the eruption and the location of the Sunspot on the solar disc. A coronal mass ejection is best described as a concentrated gust of solar wind…an outward-moving, steadily expanding cloud of plasma that takes approximately two days (on average) to reach and pass Earth. When Sunspot 1402 erupted on January 22 it was, by chance, in the perfect position to launch a CME in Earth’s direction. Also, this CME was very fast moving, and space weather forecasters expected it to impact Earth’s magnetic field with enough velocity to trigger a significant G2 or G3 Geomagnetic Storm, an event that often brings colourful displays of aurora across northern Europe, northern Asia, southern Canada, and the northern United States.

January 23, 2012 • S-Class Solar Radiation Storm • Within a few hours of the solar flare, a shockwave of energized solar protons from the M9 eruption passes Earth at tremendous speeds. Scientists announce the planet is experiencing a significant S3 Solar Radiation Storm, the biggest radiation event since 2003. This is essentially a wave of protons that was energized by the flare itself. An S3 event is intense enough to affect the safety of astronauts, satellites, polar communications infrastructure, radio , and the instruments and passengers on planes that are flying at high altitudes. For astronauts on a space walk or passengers on board a high altitude flight in the North, the radiation levels for an S3 event are low, and prolonged exposure to this radiation would be approximately the equivalent of receiving 1 chest X-Ray. These storms are categorized using a scale of 1-5, with 5 being Extreme and 3 being Strong. Following the initial wave, it can sometimes take many days for the solar radiation levels to return to normal. Suddenly the media is abuzz with stories about intense storming, but there is much confusion about the difference between a solar radiation storm and a geomagnetic storm, which was still expected to occur on January 24, when the CME (a different wave of energy than the one that caused a radiation storm) finally arrived at Earth. The confusion is understandable, with two active sunspots, auroras already underway because of a less powerful M3.2 flare and CME from Sunspot 1402 on January 19.

January 24, 2012 • CME Impacts Earth’s Magnetic Field • At approximately 8:00 a.m. MST, the Coronal Mass Ejection that left Sunspot 1402 at 9 p.m. MST on January 22 finally collides with Earth’s magnetic field at a speed of nearly 750 km/sec, fast enough for experts to declare that a significant Geomagnetic Storm on Earth was possible. Soon after impact a Geomagnetic Storm Watch is issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The range of solar wind speed during this event was between 340 km/sec and 732 km/sec. The solar wind is steadily blowing at speeds of a 100-250 hundred km/sec and gusts reaching 400-500 km/sec are common when solar activity increases. When impact occurs Earth’s magnetic field is compressed on the sunward side, and elongated on the nightward side.

January 24, 2012 • G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm • Earth’s magnetic field absorbs the bombardment of particles from the incoming CME, and shortly after this energy is suddenly released as a G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm in the skies above northern Europe, Asia and North America. Those people living on the nightward side of Earth enjoyed the unsettled conditions created by the storm, as periods of active auroras were visible in high latitudes however for reasons that are not well understood, the initial CME impact did not generate a major G2 or G3 geomagnetic storm as some forecasters predicted could happen. Geomagnetic storms are major disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field that are caused by significant gusts of solar wind. Geomagnetic storms are measured on a scale of 1-5, with a G5 being extreme, and a G1 being minor. A G2 or G3 Geomagnetic Storm are visible across southern Canada and the northern United States. These storms can last for many hours, with multiple peaks that produce very colourful displays of aurora. Periods of unsettled magnetic field conditions often continue for many hours, or sometimes days after a major storm.

SOURCE OF CONFUSION. Sunspot 1402 erupted on Thursday, January 19, 2012, however some websites reported this M-Class Flare originated from Sunspot 1401, causing confusion about when the Coronal Mass Ejection would be arriving at Earth. (YouTube Video: Special Thanks to Solarham.com / Solar Dynamics Observatory / EUV Variability Experiment / Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory)

By James Pugsley
Astronomy North—

(YELLOWKNIFE, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) When the eruption of an M3.2-Class solar flare occurred on January 19, launching a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in Earth’s general direction, geomagnetic forecasters quickly began predicting the trajectory, intensity and size of the expanding cloud of plasma. It didn’t take long for analysts at spaceweather.com and the Goddard Space Weather Lab to declare that Earth was in the direct path of the CME, and that a significant geomagnetic storm would be imminent on Saturday, January 21…likely around 22:30 UT (midday in Canada), give or take a few hours. In the same article it was identified that the CME originated from sunspot 1401.

Much like the solar flare itself, this story erupted. Mainstream and social media came alive with warnings and alerts, and why shouldn’t they…we don’t get Earth-directed events every day. True, this flare was not nearly as impressive as an X-Class event, but any kind of direct impact is media friendly. With so much chatter and Saturday’s “Extreme” geomagnetic forecast on the University of Alaska Fairbanks website it was no wonder the public was now bracing for auroras above Canada and the U.S. on Saturday.

Sunspots 1401 and 1402

What the media missed, however, is that there were multiple other space weather websites reporting that the flare did not originate from Sunspot 1401, rather it was the nearby Active Region 1402 that launched the CME, featuring a sunspot of gigantic proportions that is a small (but relatively significant) distance “North” of Sunspot 1401. The case for 1402 was reinforced on Friday when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a less optimistic geomagnetic forecast for the weekend, declaring that the incoming CME that originated from 1402 on Thursday would not result in a direct impact, but rather it would deliver a glancing blow, likely to trigger a minor geomagnetic storm beginning on January 22.

It seems the next 24 hours will have a direct impact on the credibility of space weather experts. Data collected close to Earth will tell the story about which sunspot was responsible for the CME. If impact is weak and does not arrive on January 21, the source of the event was most likely 1402, and a tip of the cap goes to NOAA forecasters.

So what created this wave of confusion? A lack of consensus on the source of the CME. If experts agreed that the event did indeed originate from 1401, there would be little disagreement about this weekend’s geomagnetic forecast. But if the source was 1402, the trajectory data is very different, and so is the arrival time, intensity and event duration.

This likely occurred because Sunspot 1401 and 1402 are somewhat close to each other, though a contributing factor may be that some analysts are making predictions using instruments (ie STEREO) that are designed to observe expanding clouds of plasma, not the source of the CME. In this case, the absence of consensus prior to calculating the CME arrival time resulted in a minor media frenzy that delivered mixed information in the public.

From an aurora forecaster’s point of view, it’s already hard enough to predict when a geomagnetic event is going to occur, but it’s even harder when there is a difference of opinion about the source of the CME.

Ultimately it appears the folks at Spaceweather.com and Goddard will have to answer to their critics if their January 21 predictions do not come true. Of course, if they do come true, they reap the rewards…but should do so with a side order of humble pie. Predictions about major solar storms should be handled with care, and in some circumstances (like this one) sites like Spaceweather.com should consider more than one scenario…in this case, they chose not to let the public know about 1402 and/or other possible outcomes this weekend.

Either way, skywatchers in the North (including northern BC, AB, SK, MB, ON, QC and NL) should be on alert for spectacular displays of auroras over the next few nights. Further south, skywatchers across Canada and the northern United States should be on alert for auroras, but should also be prepared for heightened levels of frustration if events don’t turn out as some analysts originally predicted.