(YELLOWKNIFE, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) An October 5 coronal mass ejection (CME) that originated near Sunspot 1582 is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Monday, October 8. If the impact is significant, geomagnetic storms will be possible at high latitudes for 24-48 hours after impact. If the impact is weak, there will likely be a surge in activity in the first few hours after impact, but a low probability of storming beyond that.
In addition to Monday’s arrival, a second Earth-directed CME was detected on October 7, and is forecasted to arrive on Wednesday, October 10 in conjunction with a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream, which was expected trigger polar auroras on its own.
If both impacts occur as predicted, accompanied by the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream, field conditions are likely to remain unsettled for the entire week, which is great news for northern skywatchers. Observers across Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut, as well as observers in northern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland-Labrador should be on alert for auroras all week!
For the latest geomagnetic field data and CME arrival time predictions, check out the Space Weather Prediction Centre website. Stay tuned to the Yellowknife Aurora Forecast over the next few days too, as aurora predictions may change – especially if the first CME does not impact Earth’s magnetic field as expected.
